Zero Equilibrium H1 2025 Financial Market Review
- By Chinedu Okoye ABSTRACT: This paper reviews the performance of key financial markets and select asset classes in H1 2025, building on prior outlooks published in our Zero Equilibrium series. We assess how equities, fixed income (sovereigns), commodities, and crypto fared relative to our expectations, noting where outcomes aligned or diverged (especially in light of unpriced geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty). Equities proved more volatile than anticipated, with sharp swings tied to tariff news, but ultimately recovered on the announcement or a pause, while gold and silver hit our targets on safe-haven flows and central bank reserve shifts. Oil struggled under weak Chinese demand, though it hit our expected range. EM sovereigns delivered on their risk-reward potential, and crypto (led by Bitcoin) performed in line with expectations, showing both...